By François Rimeu, Senior Strategist, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management
Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is an asset management company of Groupe La Française, the holding company of the asset management business line of Credit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.
SpaceX’s IPO is scheduled for June 12 and is expected to kick off what could become a record-breaking year for IPO fundraising in 2026, with the anticipated listings of OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe and Anduril also on the horizon. Altogether, the combined valuation of these companies could reach $4.6 trillion. By comparison, the total value of all IPOs completed since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1792 amounts to approximately $1.5 trillion. (Source: StoneX, May 2026)
Even so, the immediate impact on market liquidity is likely to remain limited at first, as these companies are expected to raise only around 10% of their total market capitalization. Consequently, their weighting in major indices should remain relatively contained in the short term, given that most indices only take free float (shares available for trading) into account. Furthermore, the Nasdaq, which is where these companies are expected to be listed, caps index weighting at 300% of free float. It is also worth noting that the inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq is expected to take place on July 7, approximately 15 trading days after the IPO.
Nevertheless, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic alone could ultimately account for between 1.5% and 2% of the Nasdaq index. This share is likely to increase rapidly as lock-up restrictions expire for certain major shareholders. The most popular ETFs would then likely need to reduce portions of their existing holdings in order to rebalance portfolio weightings appropriately.
SpaceX’s valuation, initially estimated at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, could reach $2.3 trillion according to the latest estimates, supported by historically strong participation from private investors. (Source: Rutgers, May 2026) That being said, these estimates remain highly volatile and can fluctuate by several hundred billion dollars within a single trading day. Investors are no longer valuing SpaceX merely as a space exploration company, but rather as a potentially indispensable infrastructure provider for the future expansion of artificial intelligence through satellite communications, global connectivity and data transfer capacity. Indeed, based on current figures, such valuations may appear difficult to justify. In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue, while the company remains unprofitable.
The current environment remains highly supportive of AI, which helps explain the timing of these announcements. However, questions remain regarding the market’s ability to absorb such massive issuance volumes and the potential spillover effects on other asset classes. After all, $4.6 trillion represents more than 14% of U.S. GDP. (Source: Bloomberg, May 2026)
