German purchasing managers are apparently anticipating a difficult winter. According to the survey, new orders in the manufacturing sector have fallen sharply and are at recession level. Production has improved compared with the previous month, but is still below a satisfactory level. The trend in the services sector is even more worrying. Service business activity has declined for the fifth time in succession, indicating recession concerns, particularly because business expectations have plummeted. Whether the mood here can turn around again depends to a large extent on politics. Half of Germans heat with natural gas. The wrangling over the gas levy, the unclear situation as to what will happen next with energy prices and what measures will ultimately be taken by the German government to cushion the impact are unsettling consumers and thus the economy.

The picture in France is much more positive. The assessment in the service sector has improved to such an extent that all indicators are green. By contrast, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is deteriorating. Due to the greater importance of the service sector in France, the assessment of the overall economy has actually improved compared with the previous month.

Everything points to a recession in Europe and particularly in Germany. It remains to be seen how severe this will be. Gas storage facilities are well stocked, Russian gas imports have been replaced to a large extent by imports from other countries, and gas consumption has been drastically reduced without any real slumps so far. Now it's "only" the record-high prices that are hitting consumers. If politicians succeed in distributing these burdens fairly across the population and over time, then Germany and Europe should get through this winter reasonably well.