By Frédéric Lejoint.
The Amundi Funds – US Pioneer portfolio uses volatility as an opportunity in uncertain times.
Alec Murray, Senior Vice President and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Pioneer Investments, a Victory Capital Investment Franchise, recently visited Brussels to discuss the current opportunities in U.S. equities. He first noted that in the current geopolitical context, particularly regarding the military conflict in the Persian Gulf, “U.S. equities serve as a safe haven due to the United States’ energy independence.”
However, this greater resilience of the U.S. economy to rising oil prices does not mean the country is immune to increased volatility if the conflict were to drag on for several months, “but it should nevertheless remain well below the levels seen in other regions more dependent on oil.”
Technological Caution
Regarding the U.S. market, Alec Murray notes that the market structure has changed significantly since 2024. “At that time, the ten largest market caps accounted for 68% of the U.S. market’s performance, representing an extreme degree of concentration. The environment has changed significantly, with a much broader distribution now.” He believes this shift is positive and healthy, creating a more favorable playing field for active managers.
The current portfolio does not overweight large-cap technology stocks focused on artificial intelligence. “AI can accelerate revenue and earnings growth, but the level of investment in these technologies may not be sustainable in the long term, with a growing number of companies using their cash flow—or even taking on debt—to finance these expenditures.”
“In addition, Murray thinks the market volatility so far in 2026 may be creating opportunities. In software, for example, we’ve identified a set of criteria to determine whether a company is at risk of losing its competitive advantage. In highly specialized and heavily regulated fields, such as financial software or semiconductor manufacturing, you need 100% accuracy to avoid problems. However, at this stage, AI-developed solutions are still far from achieving such precision, and they may never be able to achieve it.” Following this analysis, the portfolio shifted back toward companies whose stock prices had been unfairly penalized in early 2026.
Sector Opportunities
In terms of the sector allocation of the Amundi Funds – US Pioneer fund (with $20 billion in assets under management), technology accounts for about one-third of assets, representing an equal weight relative to the benchmark index. Conversely, Amundi ’s flagship fund in the U.S. market currently overweights more cyclical segments “that will not be fundamentally disrupted by AI,” such as industrials, copper and building materials producers, and utilities. “For industrials, this positioning is driven by a return to growth, with manufacturing activity indices having returned to expansionary levels.”
For utilities, Alec Murray notes that this is one of the most promising ways to gain exposure to the field of artificial intelligence. “We know that the use of AI will become widespread, and that electricity consumption will increase. These companies are at the heart of this revolution by building the infrastructure necessary for its development.” This theme of electrification encompasses traditional energy infrastructure, gas turbine manufacturers, firms active in the construction of power generation capacity, renewable energy producers, and even nuclear power.
“We are witnessing a gradual resurgence of this energy source in the United States,” noting the upcoming reopening of the Three Mile Island plant—historically the site of one of the most serious nuclear power plant accidents in the Western world—to power the data centers of a major American technology company.
Defensive Balance
On the other hand, Alec Murray acknowledges that the macroeconomic outlook, while positive due to fiscal stimulus and productivity gains, is less certain in the United States than it was a month ago due to the conflict in the Middle East, both for the labor market and regarding the direction of inflation, and consequently for the monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve. “This environment leads us to maintain some exposure to defensive sectors such as healthcare, while remaining mindful of valuation opportunities.”
In practice, this defensive positioning translates into an overweight allocation to the healthcare sector, which is viewed as a significant source of opportunities in the U.S. stock market. “In an environment where drug pricing is a recurring topic of debate, with a wave of patent expirations expected in the coming years, we invest only in healthcare companies whose products are clearly differentiated.” He points in particular to the diabetes and obesity sector, which has become a duopoly where the two main players enjoy significant competitive advantages, with a market that is still far from saturated.
At the same time, he remains cautious on stocks exposed to U.S. private consumption, which may experience periods of weakness in the coming months if job growth does not reaccelerate. “The American consumer is already under pressure and will likely not be able to maintain the same pace as in recent years.”
Periods of Volatility
Alec Murray emphasizes that the investment process is based on analyzing the risk/return profile for each company, with the development of two scenarios (a base case and a pessimistic scenario). “Since it is impossible to be right on every investment decision, the potential for each position must be asymmetric, with twice as much upside potential as downside risk.”
“This also prompts us to rebalance the portfolio toward the best opportunities in the U.S. market. Fundamentally, our diversified and valuation-driven approach means that we have the best opportunity to outperform our competitors when market volatility rises, as significant opportunities may arise for active managers.” Amundi Funds – US Pioneer (ISIN: LU1883872332) is rated 4 stars by Morningstar, with a historical return of nearly 13% over the past decade.
